Font Size:big  middle  small

Seamless steel pipe information on August 12th

Number of visits: Date:2017-5-23 15:37

Recently, the main rebar futures contract price around $1401 to $3700 a line of consolidation, the author thought that the steel price consolidation will continue to rise, after gaining the main reason is that the steel stocks continued to decline, prices of raw materials are high in the short term stabilization and market expectations rise in consumption, and many other factors.

Steel social inventory decline, inventory consumption than in low. At present, steel social inventory already falling 19 weeks in a row, the total inventory by late March 22.51 million tons to 22.51 million tons, down 32%. Over the same period rebar inventories fell from 10.95 million tons to 10.95 million tons, or 41%, inventory output of 16.9%. At the same time, tang shan area of billet continuous decline in five months, stocks by highs last week, fell to 1.97 million tons, 620000 tons, a drop of 69%.

July consumption off-season not weak, expected steel inventories continued a trend of decline. Recently, the steel association announced in mid-july crude steel output, is 2.1303 million tons, from early July rose 2.27%. In the middle of July, although production quarter-on-quarter rise, but according to cisa's data, as of mid-july steel inventory or falling. Hypothesis in late July crude steel output up to 2.1854 million tons, and consumption is constant, the steel stocks unchanged compared with June. So from this Angle to forecast, due to various factors, environmental protection and production record may be small, that is to say, under the condition of invariable hypothesis consumption steel inventories should be July or falling.
In July and from a consumer point of view, the off-season does not light. Hebei metallurgical industry association released July PMI iron and steel industry in hebei province in 2013 was 49.9%, year-on-year growth of 6.5%, while six consecutive months of contraction, but hit in July to the highest level in six months, the early stage of the steel industry in hebei province is slightly better. From each component, the new orders index was 54.8% in July, rose 14.8%, while the current in a seasonal demand off-season, but as the market rally, traders and end users of the increased inventory demand for steel order.

Short-term strong, prices of raw materials for steel prices. Since march this year, steel mills have been ore inventory of their libraries, to early July, steel ore inventory is very low and basically lasted only for two weeks or so production, steel mills to maintain normal production and ore for the case library. As steel mills bought ore prices quickly pull litre, with lower port stocks, July by low of $110 / ton ore prices to $130.25 / ton, or 18.4%, far more than the steel price rises. Although ore price rise quickly, steel mills to slow down the purchasing schedule, but the steel ore absolute inventory remains at a low level, at the same time, the physical inventory of port is low, so in the short term ore in the high and volatile prices have dropped sharply, this undoubtedly for steel prices.

Coke and scrap steel furnace charge, meanwhile, also have the same experience with ore, in early July, steel mills coke inventories fell to 10 days (industry standards of normal production is 15 days), steel scrap steel stocks had fallen to the 9 days (standards of industry to maintain the normal production is 15 days). Steel price begins to rise in July, steel mills profit improvement, severe coking plant losses at the same time, the part of the coking plant to leak. And need to buy coke and scrap steel mills to maintain normal production, therefore, coke and scrap steel prices also suit rose.

From the policy level, may be a good policy in the third quarter. On July 31, director of the national development and reform commission, said the second half of the year, to maintain a reasonable investment growth, accelerate the implementation of the "twelfth five-year" plan key construction tasks, to strengthen the construction of railway and other transportation infrastructure, more to turn shantytowns into new housing areas and related infrastructure investment, speed up the implementation of rural power grid upgrading project, and should pay special attention to the reed mountain restoration and reconstruction after the earthquake. At the same time, the domestic environmental policy implementation also want to know the result at the end of September, backward production capacity is really shut down, the market remains to be seen. In conclusion, short-term steel market by heavy rains in summer and part of the weather and a decline in consumer price adjustment is normal, steel prices rose after consolidation gaining probability is bigger.

TypeInfo: Company News

Keywords for the information: